From the pandemic shocks to state polls to global trends, a raft of sentiment drivers are expected to steer the Indian stock market in 2022 after a historic year of massive investor returns and milestones. The Union Budget, which will be closely watched for further reform moves, and quarterly earnings of corporates will be among the developments on investors' radar amid global central banks moving towards tighter interest regime in the wake of inflationary pressures. The year 2021 was rewarding in a big way for equity investors.
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
Mutual funds are loading up on information technology (IT) stocks on improved valuations and low downside risk after a double-digit correction in top companies like Infosys and Wipro. IT stocks were MFs' top sectoral buys in April when they invested a net of Rs 2,100 crore. In the first four months of 2023, the net investments in IT amounted to Rs 9,500 crore, shows an analysis by ICICI Securities.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd has become the country's fifth most valuable auto firm by market valuation in its debut trade on Tuesday. Shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd, the Indian arm of South Korean automaker Hyundai, listed at Rs 1,931, reflecting a decline of 1.47 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,960 on the BSE earlier in the day. The stock slumped 7.80 per cent to Rs 1,807.05 during the day and finally ended at Rs 1,820.40 apiece, down 7.12 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
TCS tops the list of 100 wealth creators for the fourth time in a row
Investors' wealth tumbled over Rs 2.58 lakh crore on Monday as equity markets suffered a heavy sell-off, with the Sensex plunging 2 per cent. The BSE benchmark tanked 1,172.19 points or 2.01 per cent to settle at 57,166.74 after a weak opening. During the day, it plummeted 1,496.54 points or 2.56 per cent to 56,842.39. Tracking the weak trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms tumbled by Rs 2,58,855.59 crore to stand at Rs 2,69,44,207.98 crore.
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Motilal Oswal of Motilal Oswal Financial Services tells Puneet Wadhwa why he thinks the current market levels will sustain.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 8 lakh crore in five days of market plunge. The BSE benchmark has lost 2,062.99 points or 4 per cent in five trading sessions. On Thursday, the 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 585.10 points or 1.17 per cent to close at 49,216.52. Following the bearish trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies declined by Rs 804,216.71 crore to Rs 2,01,22,436.75 crore in five days.
Lump sum investments in equity and hybrid schemes of mutual funds (MFs) declined to Rs 17,900 crore in October - the lowest since January 2021. The fall in lump sum investments comes even as flows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) rose to a new all-time high of Rs 13,000 crore in October. The latest lump sum tally is just a third of the peak inflow of Rs 49,700 crore in July 2021.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has emerged as the biggest wealth creator over the past five years.
Mutual funds (MFs) lapped up shares of new-age businesses in April at a time when most of these stocks have recovered sharply from their 52-week lows. Nykaa and Zomato featured in the list of top 10 most bought shares by MFs last month, with fund houses' holdings in these two stocks rising by over Rs 1,100 crore, shows a report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Shares of Zomato had staged some recovery in April after remaining subdued for an extended period.
Shares of brokerages and market infrastructure institutions (MIIs) witnessed heavy selling pressure following the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) pivot to a uniform fee structure, which analysts fear could dent revenues. Discount brokerages, which currently benefit from a spread between client charges and exchange fees, are expected to be most affected. Shares of Angel One, the third-largest brokerage by active clients, fell 8.7 per cent. Groww and Zerodha, the largest brokerages, are not publicly listed.
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Domestic equities will be mainly driven by global market trends, foreign institutional investors' movement and developments around new Covid variant Omicron this week, according to analysts. Markets traded under pressure last week following weak global cues and overall investor sentiment remained downbeat throughout the week, they observed. "Global markets, Omicron variant, dollar index and FIIs' behaviour will be key factors to drive the market this week," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. One major event last week was US Federal Reserve's announcement that it will end bond-buying from March, and it also signalled starting rate hike cycle thereafter.
Titan Company on November 21, became the second Tata group firm to join Rs 3 trillion market capitalisation (market cap) club after its shares hit a new high of Rs 3,400, up nearly 2 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade. At 12:28 PM; with a market cap of Rs 301,847 crore (Rs 3.02 trillion) Titan stood at number 16th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE listed companies, the exchange data shows. Titan overtook paint company Asian Paints, which has a market cap of Rs 300,579 crore, data shows.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
Investors became poorer by over Rs 4.47 lakh crore on Friday as markets faced severe drubbing, mirroring weak trends in global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark dived 866.65 points or 1.56 per cent to settle at 54,835.58. During the day, it tumbled 1,115.48 points or 2 per cent to 54,586.75.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently up 0.83%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently up 0.8%.
10 largecaps stocks which stand to gain from the Budget.
Investor wealth worth over Rs 13.44 lakh crore was wiped off on Thursday as the domestic equity markets tumbled along with global risk assets, after Russia launched military operations against Ukraine. Amid intensifying rout in the global financial markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 2,702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to end at 54,529.91. The carnage on Dalal Street eroded investor wealth worth Rs 13,44,488.54 crore, taking the total market capitalisation (m-cap) to Rs 2,42,24,179.79 crore on the BSE.
Equity investors became richer by over Rs 7.21 lakh crore as stock markets continued the rally for the second day on Wednesday. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened in the green on Wednesday and further jumped 1,469.64 points or 2.75 per cent to 54,893.73 during the day. It finally settled at 54,647.33, higher by 1,223.24 points or 2.29 per cent amid reports of diplomatic efforts to end Russia's attack on Ukraine. On Tuesday, it settled at 53,424.09, higher by 581.34 points or 1.10 per cent.
The rupee declined by 10 paise to close at 79.23 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday, tracking the strength of the American currency in the overseas market. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.20 and finally ended at 79.23, down 10 paise over its previous close of 79.13. "Gains for the currency were short-lived even after RBI announced forex related measures. "Pound held on to its gains after Boris Johnson said he was quitting as prime minister following a rush of ministerial resignations and calls for him to go," said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
Sensex gains 2.4%, Nifty crosses 7,000; investors feel exit polls have vindicated their stand
The inflation data for May and the US Fed interest rate decision are the crucial factors that would dictate terms in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of rupee and crude oil prices would be the other key monitarables for the markets, they added. "All eyes will be on the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision scheduled on June 15, and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid inflation monster. "Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy on June 17.
The stock market is likely to continue with its positive momentum but may face bouts of profit-booking amid lofty valuations in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The trading sentiment will be guided mostly by global trends in absence of major domestic events, they said. Markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Ganesh Chaturthi'.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped to a record high of Rs 2,40,04,664.28 crore on Tuesday, driven by a rally in stocks that also saw the benchmark Sensex touching its lifetime peak of 53,887.98 points. Rallying for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, the 30-share BSE index closed at a fresh closing peak of 53,823.36 points, a jump of 872.73 points or 1.65 per cent. During the day, it zoomed 937.35 points to 53,887.98 points.
Equity investors have become poorer by more than Rs 18.74 lakh crore as the market continued to remain bearish for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,158.08 points or 2.14 per cent to end below the 53,000-level at 52,930.31 points on Thursday. Markets have been falling for five straight sessions and the BSE benchmark has tumbled 2,771.92 points or 4.97 per cent during this period.
The current valuation is 38 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 22x and over 50 per cent higher than the 20-year average of around 20x.
Oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) has emerged as the country's largest wealth creator, adding a staggering Rs 9.6 trillion over the past five years, according to Motilal Oswal's 26th Annual Wealth Creation Study. In doing so, the Mukesh Ambani-led company has beaten its own record of Rs 5.6 trillion generated in 2014-19. The study covered financial year 2015-16 (FY16) to FY21 and ranks the top 100 companies in descending order of absolute wealth created, subject to the company's stock price outperforming the BSE Sensex. The firms were also ranked according to speed (price CAGR during the period).
Investors' wealth has swelled by over Rs 13.16 lakh crore as benchmark indices continued their northward march for the fifth session on the trot on Monday. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 935.72 points or 1.68 per cent to settle at 56,486.02 on Monday. In the past five trading sessions, the benchmark has zoomed 3,643.27 points or 6.89 per cent. Propelled by the optimism in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped by Rs 13,16,944.74 crore in five trading sessions to Rs 2,54,27,775.78 crore.
Investors' wealth on Tuesday jumped by over Rs 2.51 lakh crore, in tandem with a sharp recovery in equities after four days of heavy declines. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a weak note and tumbled 581.93 points or 1.10 per cent to 52,260.82 during the day amid firming oil prices and relentless selling by foreign institutional investors. Amid bouts of volatility, the benchmark touched a high of 53,484.26 and a low of 52,260.82 during the trade. It finally settled at 53,424.09, higher by 581.34 points or 1.10 per cent.
Overseas investors were one of the heavy buyers.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ITC were the biggest gainers. Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC and State Bank of India were among the laggards.
'Valuations were depressed at 8,000 (Nifty 50 index) levels. It was a free ride to 12,000 levels.' 'What went down had to come up. Now fundamentals have to support further gains.'
